Description : Investigation into the causes of international conflict has in many ways formed the central locus of the early work in the scientific investigation of world politics. This edited volume contains the most recent quantitative work in this area, reflecting the current state of the field in the topics addressed, the data utilized and the methods employed. The book is divided into three parts, presenting first some recent contributions to the work on the causes of international conflict, set in the context of realist theories. The second part addresses issues relating to data, methods and cases used to analyze international conflict, while the third part presents some examples of the use of a variety of different methods to answer questions relating to issues which engage international relations scholars today. The chapters focus on a variety of pertinent topics, and include discussions of important innovations in our ability to analyze conflict, such as the introduction of the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data.
Description : Militarized conflicts between states appear to occur repeatedly in the same geographic regions. Both World Wars and a series of interstate disputes in the post-Cold War system had their origins in the Balkans region of Eastern Europe. This study introduces the concept of a conflict hot spot to the broader empirical literature on conflict processes. It devotes considerable time to identifying the common causes and consequences of conflict hot spots across many regions globally, offering a theoretical and empirical contribution to the emerging literature on the spatiality of conflict processes. Rather than merely controlling for spatial dependence between episodes of conflict, the book incorporates this spatial dependence within a series of models of conflict behaviours and is, therefore, able to directly model the process of conflict diffusion.
Description : "Investigating the causes and consequences of ethnic conflict, the authors argue that the most effective responses are those that take into account factors at the local, state, regional and global level and that avoid seeking simplistic explanations and solutions to what is a truly complex phenomenon." "Ethnic conflicts are man-made, not natural disasters, and as such they can be understood, prevented and settled. However, it takes skilful, committed and principled leaders to achieve durable settlements that are supported by their followers, and it takes the long-term commitment of the international community to enable and sustain such settlements." --Book Jacket.
Description : The Diffusion of Military Power examines how the financial and organizational challenges of adopting new methods of fighting wars can influence the international balance of power. Michael Horowitz argues that a state or actor wishing to adopt a military innovation must possess both the financial resources to buy or build the technology and the internal organizational capacity to accommodate any necessary changes in recruiting, training, or operations. How countries react to new innovations--and to other actors that do or don't adopt them--has profound implications for the global order and the likelihood of war. Horowitz looks at some of the most important military innovations throughout history, including the advent of the all-big-gun steel battleship, the development of aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons, and the use of suicide terror by nonstate actors. He shows how expensive innovations can favor wealthier, more powerful countries, but also how those same states often stumble when facing organizationally complicated innovations. Innovations requiring major upheavals in doctrine and organization can disadvantage the wealthiest states due to their bureaucratic inflexibility and weight the balance of power toward smaller and more nimble actors, making conflict more likely. This book provides vital insights into military innovations and their impact on U.S. foreign policy, warfare, and the distribution of power in the international system.
Description : A unique account of military conflict under the shadow of nuclear escalation, with access to the soldiers and politicians involved.
Description : The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Description : What causes war? How can military conflicts best be prevented? A prominent political scientist here addresses these questions, offering ideas that will be widely debated. Stephen Van Evera frames five conditions that increase the risk of interstate war: false optimism about the likely outcome of a war, a first-strike advantage, fluctuation in the relative power of states, circumstances that allow nations to parlay one conquest into another, and circumstances that make conquest easy. According to Van Evera, all but one of these conditions—false optimism—rarely occur today, but policymakers often erroneously believe in their existence. He argues that these misperceptions are responsible for many modern wars, and explores both World Wars, the Korean War, and the 1967 Mideast War as test cases. Finally, he assesses the possibility of nuclear war by applying all five hypotheses to its potential onset. Van Evera's book demonstrates that ideas from the Realist paradigm can offer strong explanations for international conflict and valuable prescriptions for its control.
Description : While the war in Afghanistan saw most industrial countries back the US-led campaign, the subsequent war in Iraq has profoundly divided international opinion, and likely represents a watershed in the post? Cold War international order. "The Iraq War" examines the full range of explanations of the conflict, as well as its significance for the Middle East, for key international relationships, and for the future of the international system. The authors critically assess the foreign-policy decisions of both global and regional actors. What policies were adopted, and against what opposition? What state interests were served or compromised in the process? What are the likely longer-term consequences of each country's position? Addressing these questions, as well as broader issues of regional stability, global political economy, and the changing nature of warfare, they offer an in-depth, systematic analysis that brings clarity to this complex subject.
Description : This volume brings together expert case studies on a range of experiences of third-party interventions in civil wars. The chapters consider the role of a variety of organisations, including the United Nations, NATO, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the African Union, and the Organization of American States. Each case study features a presentation and analysis of empirical data in two dimensions: the organisation’s general capabilities to carry out intervention in civil wars and, specific to one particular intervention, the conflict context in which it happened. This serves two purposes. First, to offer insights into the dynamics of each individual case and helping us understand the specific outcome of an intervention effort, i.e., why did a mission (partially) succeed or fail. Second, it enables us to make real comparisons between the cases and draw policy-relevant conclusions about the conditions under which military, civilian and hybrid intervention missions are likely to succeed. This book was originally published as a special issue of Civil Wars.
Description : A militarized interstate dispute (MID) refers to international conflict short of war. The MID dataset from the Correlates of War Project catalogs summary data on all threats, displays, and uses of force between two or more states. These dispute data are essential in quantitative analyses of international conflict and other issues, such as diplomatic efforts and security policy. The problem however is that they offer little information barring a brief summary of the conflict event. This work remedies it by providing original, detailed narrative descriptions of what occurred in each case. Organized by rivalry and within geographic regions, these case descriptions, written specifically for this work, will be an essential resource for those interested in the causes, histories, and consequences of international conflicts.