Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  October 2015  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 108
Release: 2015-10-07
ISBN: 1513599712
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. Key risks, including an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, may disproportionately affect Latin America. Chapters in this report examine monetary policy in Latin America, including the region’s exposure to global financial shocks; the role of value chains and regional trade agreements in fostering trade integration; and financial market development in the region.

Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  October 2015  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 108
Release: 2015-10-07
ISBN: 1513575201
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. Key risks, including an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, may disproportionately affect Latin America. Chapters in this report examine monetary policy in Latin America, including the region’s exposure to global financial shocks; the role of value chains and regional trade agreements in fostering trade integration; and financial market development in the region.

Regional Economic Outlook October 2019 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  October 2019  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2019-10-28
ISBN: 1513516965
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook October 2019 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

The global economy has slowed, with important consequences for growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean. The slowdown in economic activity has been broad-based among advanced economies and more pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies, partly reflecting trade and geopolitical tensions. Global growth is projected to decline to the lowest level since the global financial crises, before recovering in 2020. More importantly, growth is projected to decline in 2019–20 in the United States and China, which are LAC’s two main trading partners. The ongoing sluggishness of global growth and trade is affecting export growth in LAC, posing significant headwinds to the outlook. External demand for the region remains subdued, with trading partner growth (including China, Europe, other LAC countries, and the United States) projected to decline in 2019, before recovering modestly over the medium term. Moreover, commodity prices (notably energy and metals), key drivers of growth in LAC in the past, are projected to decline with a likely modest negative impact on regional growth going forward.

Regional Economic Outlook October 2018 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  October 2018  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2018-10-12
ISBN: 1484380576
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook October 2018 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

Amid escalating trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity markets, economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean has both moderated and become more uneven.

Regional Economic Outlook April 2016 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  April 2016  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: Mr.Hamid Faruqee
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2016-04-27
ISBN: 1498329993
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook April 2016 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.

Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  April 2017  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 155
Release: 2017-05-19
ISBN: 147557522X
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.

Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  April 2018  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 132
Release: 2018-05-11
ISBN: 1484339878
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Regional Economic Outlook April 2015 Western Hemisphere Department

Regional Economic Outlook  April 2015  Western Hemisphere Department
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2015-04-29
ISBN: 1498312128
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook April 2015 Western Hemisphere Department Book Excerpt:

The economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean remains very challenging. Regional growth is projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year in 2015, dipping below 1 percent. Weakness is concentrated among South America's commodity exporters, where falling global commodity prices have compounded country-specific challenges. Meanwhile, growth is projected to be steady or stronger for most of the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, supported by lower oil bills for importers and robust economic recovery in the United States. The analysis in this report examines core challenges facing the region: the impact of lower commodity prices on fiscal and external positions, the drivers of the slowdown in investment, and the role of economic diversification for longer-term growth prospects.

Global Economic Prospects January 2016

Global Economic Prospects  January 2016
Author: WorldBank
Publsiher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 284
Release: 2016-01-21
ISBN: 1464806764
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Global Economic Prospects January 2016 Book Excerpt:

The January 2016 edition of Global Economic Prospects discusses current global and regional economic developments and prospects, analyzing key challenges and opportunities confronting developing countries. This volume addresses, among other topics, spillovers from large emerging markets and macroeconomic vulnerabilities during resource development. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. Semiannually (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Global Financial Stability Report October 2015

Global Financial Stability Report  October 2015
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 131
Release: 2015-10-07
ISBN: 1513582046
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Global Financial Stability Report October 2015 Book Excerpt:

The October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite an improvement in financial stability in advanced economies, risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets. The global financial outlook is clouded by a triad of policy challenges: emerging market vulnerabilities, legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies, and weak systemic market liquidity. With more vulnerable balance sheets in emerging market companies and banks, firms in these countries are more susceptible to financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. Recent market developments such as slumping commodity prices, China’s bursting equity bubble, and pressure on exchange rates underscore these challenges. The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates points to an unprecedented adjustment in the global financial system as financial conditions and risk premiums “normalize” from historically low levels alongside rising policy rates and a modest cyclical recovery. The report also examines the factors that influence levels of liquidity in securities markets, as well as the implications of low liquidity. Currently, market liquidity is being supported by benign cyclical conditions. Although it is too early to assess the impact of recent regulatory changes on market liquidity, changes in market structure, such as larger holdings of corporate bonds by mutual funds, appear to have increased the fragility of liquidity. Finally, the report studies the growing level of corporate debt in emerging markets, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. The report finds that global drivers have played an increasing role in leverage growth, issuance, and spreads. Moreover, higher leverage has been associated with, on average, rising foreign currency exposures. It also finds that despite weaker balance sheets, firms have managed to issue bonds at better terms as a result of favorable financial conditions.

World Economic Outlook October 2016

World Economic Outlook  October 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2016-10-04
ISBN: 1513599542
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

World Economic Outlook October 2016 Book Excerpt:

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.

Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing

Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing
Author: Mr.Alexander Culiuc,Ms.Annette J Kyobe
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2017-08-04
ISBN: 1484313739
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing Book Excerpt:

Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural reforms improve the current account in the short run, but they can increase the responsiveness and resilience of the economy to external shocks. In particular, elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate increase with some structural indicators, suggesting that structural reforms facilitate the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector in response to a negative external shock. The paper concludes that structural reforms, while not having an immediate positive impact on the current account balance, can be an important complement to traditional macroeconomic adjustment.

Regional Economic Outlook October 2011 Western Hemisphere

Regional Economic Outlook  October 2011  Western Hemisphere
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2011-11-03
ISBN: 1616351306
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Regional Economic Outlook October 2011 Western Hemisphere Book Excerpt:

Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt. Although much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows. This issue finds that policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks, and underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.

Commodity Cycles Inequality and Poverty in Latin America

Commodity Cycles  Inequality  and Poverty in Latin America
Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2021-04-26
ISBN: 1484326091
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Commodity Cycles Inequality and Poverty in Latin America Book Excerpt:

Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

Brazil

Brazil
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 111
Release: 2017-07-13
ISBN: 148430991X
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Brazil Book Excerpt:

This Selected Issues paper examines the proximate causes of dramatic fall in investment in Brazil and the prospects for investment going forward. A variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.

Playing with Fire

Playing with Fire
Author: Yilmaz Akyüz
Publsiher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2017-06-30
ISBN: 0192517635
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Playing with Fire Book Excerpt:

Starting in the early 1990s many emerging and developing economies (EDEs) liberalized their capital accounts, allowing greater freedom for international lenders and investors to enter their markets as well as for their residents to borrow and invest in international financial markets. Despite recurrent crises, liberalization has continued and in fact accelerated in the new millennium. Integration has been greatly facilitated by progressively looser monetary policy in the United States, notably the policies that culminated in debt crises in the United States and Europe and the ultra-easy monetary policy adopted in response. Not only have their traditional cross-border linkages been deepened and external balance sheets expanded rapidly, but also foreign presence in their domestic financial markets and the presence of their nationals in foreign markets have reached unprecedented levels. As a result new channels have emerged for the transmission of financial shocks from global boom-bust cycles. Almost all EDEs are now vulnerable irrespective of their balance-of-payments, external debt, net foreign assets and international reserve positions although these play an important role in the way such shocks could impinge on them. This is a matter for concern since the multilateral system still lacks mechanisms for orderly resolution of financial crises with international dimensions. Playing with Fire provides an empirical account of deeper integration of EDEs into the global financial system and discusses its implications for stability and growth, focusing on the role of policies in the new millennium in both EDEs and the United States and Europe.

Gone with the Headwinds

Gone with the Headwinds
Author: Gustavo Adler,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Ksenia Koloskova,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2017-04-03
ISBN: 1475589670
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Gone with the Headwinds Book Excerpt:

Productivity growth—the key driver of living standards—fell sharply following the global financial crisis and has remained sluggish since, adding to a slowdown already in train before. Building on new research, this note finds that the productivity slowdown reflects both crisis legacies and structural headwinds. In advanced economies, the global financial crisis has led to “productivity hysteresis”—persistent productivity losses from a seemingly temporary shock. Behind this are balance sheet vulnerabilities, protracted weak demand and elevated uncertainty, which jointly triggered an adverse feedback loop of weak investment, weak productivity and bleak income prospects. Structural headwinds—already blowing before the crisis—include a waning ICT boom and slowing technology diffusion, partly reflecting an aging workforce, slowing global trade and weaker human capital accumulation. Reviving productivity growth requires addressing remaining crisis legacies in the short run while pressing ahead with structural reforms to tackle longer-term headwinds.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 131
Release: 2016-09-26
ISBN: 151356563X
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016 Book Excerpt:

The year was marked by difficult challenges and milestone achievements. To reinvigorate modest growth at a time of uncertainty about a complicated global economy, the IMF membership endorsed a three-pronged approach of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to get the world economy back on a stronger and safer growth track. Highlights of the IMF’s work during the year included entry into effect of its quota and governance reforms approved in 2010, which increase the Fund’s core resources and make it more representative of the membership; commitments for increased financial support, policy advice, expertise, and training to help low-income developing countries achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals; analysis of the international monetary system; inclusion of the Chinese currency in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right; and policy advice on the economic repercussions of mass migration of refugees from Syria and other conflict-afflicted states. The IMF Annual Report, which covers the period May 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016, discusses all of these issues, plus a wide range of policy matters that the Executive Board addressed during the year.

Finance and Development September 2015

Finance and Development  September 2015
Author: International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2015-08-31
ISBN: 1484372506
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

Finance and Development September 2015 Book Excerpt:

This chapter presents the point of view and ideas of Sabina Alkire, an economist. Alkire wants the Multidimensional Poverty Index to be part of a data revolution to guide the fight against poverty. According to Alkire, learning to meditate soothed away what she describes as the temper tantrums of her childhood. The chapter also highlights the fact that an index is only as good as its underlying data, and in emerging market economies that quality is often inadequate. The quest for better poverty metrics coincides with growing doubts about the ability of conventional statistics, especially GDP, to gauge economic growth in the digital economy, let alone well-being, welfare, and environmental sustainability.

2015 Spillover Report

2015 Spillover Report
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publsiher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2015-08-06
ISBN: 1498344488
Category: Business & Economics
Language: EN, FR, DE, ES & NL

2015 Spillover Report Book Excerpt:

Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.