Description : This is a collection of papers presented at the 1985 annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis. As always seems to occur at these meetings, the discussion was lively, the sessions were filled, and people complained about not being able to hear all the papers they wanted to because of concurrent sessions. If ever someone is in charge of a meeting, I wish them the good luck to have it be one for the Society for Risk Analysis. While I was responsible for the meeting, it could not have taken place without the efforts of the general chairman, Alan Moshissi. The program committee was chaired by Janice Longstreth, and included Lee Abramson and Vincent Covello. Together we assembled disparate papers into reasonably coherent sessions, prodded authors into getting us manuscrLpts on time, and dealt with all the last minute changes that are required for a major meeting. The Washington chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis hosted the meeting. Dr. Longstreth was president of the chapter during this fateful year and deserves a great deal of thanks for her organizational skills and efforts. Rick Cothern, Jerry Chandler, Kathleen Knox, Sue Perlin, and Paul Price played major roles in organ1z1ng the meeting and making it run smoothly. Special thanks go to Richard J. Burk, Jr. , Executive Secretary of the Society, and his staff for handling the logistics.
Description : Risk assessment is considered by many analysts to be an objective scientific tool. It is considered to be variously influenced by broader issues which in turn have important practical implications both for risk assessors and decision makers. Risk Assessment and Risk Management examines a range of practical applications of risk assessment methods and risk management procedures in the broad context of environmental science and technology. Written by acknowledged experts in the field, the articles cover a variety of areas, with reference to subjects as diverse as BSE, the use of risk assessment in government, using computer modelling as an aid to risk assessment in the case of accidental contamination of rivers and estuaries, quantitative cancer risk assessment related to carcinogens in the environment, landfilling of household wastes, environmental risk assessment and management of chemicals, and aquatic risk assessment and management of pesticides. This book provides a detailed and wide-ranging review of the many aspects of risk assessment and risk management which have excited so much debate and controversy in recent times. It will be essential reading for all those involved in the assessment and management of risk, particularly in the context of environmental science.
Description : Risk is a crucial element in virtually all problems people in diverse areas face in their activities. It is impossible to find adequate models and solutions without taking it into account. Due to uncertainty and complexity in those problems, traditional "hard" tools and techniques may be insufficient for their formulation and solution. This is the first book in the literature that shows how soft computing methods (fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc.) can be employed to deal with various problems related to risk analysis, evaluation and management in various fields of technology, environment and finance.
Description : Public attention has focused in recent years on an array of technological risks to health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, responsibilities for technological risk as sessment, evaluation, and management have grown in both the public and private sectors because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks inherent in modem society. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problems of assessing and balancing risks, costs, and benefits. The need to help society cope with technological risks has given rise to a new intellectual endeavor: the social and behavioral study of issues in risk evaluation and risk management. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many fields. Analyzing social and behavioral issues requires the efforts of political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, econ omists, psychologists, philosophers, and policy analysts, among others.
Description : Most food raw materials have potential hazards associated with them - be they chemical, microbiological or physical. But some hazards are a greater risk to the final product than others. How do you objectively decide which hazards need specific attention?Risk assessment and management of raw materials provides specific guidance on the application of risk assessment techniques to identify, evaluate and control hazards associated with raw materials in a food, drink or feed manufacturing environment. The guidance will be of most use to companies looking to develop or update a procedure for raw material assessment, giving them more confidence in the food safety management procedures they have in place.The guidance is designed to be compatible with that given in Campden BRI Guideline 42 - HACCP: A Practical Guide. It may be used by both large and small businesses, the approach for each being the same, although the level of complexity, associated procedures and documentation would be significantly different.
Description : Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focus on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.
Description : At the heart of environmental protection is risk assessment: thelikelihood of pollution from accidents; the likelihood of problemsfrom normal and abnormal operation of industrial processes; thelikely impacts associated with new synthetic chemicals; and so on.Currently, risk assessment has been very much in the news--therisks from BSE and E. coli, and the public perception of risks fromnuclear waste, etc. This new publication explains how scientificmethodologies are used to assess risk from human activities and theresultant objects and wastes, on people and the environment.Understanding such risks supplies crucial information--to framelegislation, manage major habitats, businesses and industries, andcreate development programmes. Unique in combining the science of risk assessment with thedevelopment of management strategies. Covers science and social science (politics, economics,psychology) aspects. Very timely - risk assessment lies at the heart of decisionmaking in various topical environmental questions (BSE, Brent Spar,nuclear waste).
Description : Papers presented: 1) Reference points for fisheries management: the western Canadian experience; 2) Reference points for fisheries management: the eastern Canadian experience; 3) Reference points for fisheries management: the ICES experience; 4) Spawning stock biomass per recruit in fisheries management: foundation and current use; 5) The development of a management procedure for the South African anchovy resource; 6) How much spawning per recruit is enough?; 7) The behaviour of Flow, Fmed and Fhigh in response to variation in parameters used for their estimation; 8) The Barents Sea capelin stock collapse: a lesson to learn; 9) Variance estimates for fisheries assessment: their importance and how best to evaluate them; 10) Evaluating the accuracy of projected catch estimates from sequential population analysis and trawl survey abundance estimates; 11) Bootstrap estimates of ADAPT parameters, their projection in risk analysis and their retrospective patterns; 12) Analytical estimates of reliability for the projected yield from commercial fisheries; 13) Risk evaluation of the 10% harvest rate procedure for capelin in NAFO Division 3L; 14) Using jackknife and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate forecast models for Atlantic salmon; 15) Monte Carlo evaluation of risks for biological reference points used in New Zealand fishery assessments; 16) A comparison of event free risk analysis to Ricker spawner-recruit simulation: an example with Atlantic menhaden; 17) Choosing a management strategy for stock rebuilding when control is uncertain; 18) Risks and uncertainties in the management of a single-cohort squid fishery: the Falkland Islands Illex fishery as an example; 19) Risks of over- and under-fishing new resources; 20) Estimation of density-dependent natural mortality in British Columbia herring stocks through SSPA and its impact on sustainable harvesting strategies; 21) The comparative performance of production-model and ad hoc tuned VPA based feedback-control management procedures for the stock of Cape hake off the west coast of Africa; 22) A proposal for a threshold stock size and maximum fishing mortality rate; 23) Biological reference points for Canadian Atlantic gadoid stocks; 24) Stochastic locally-optimal harvesting; 25) ITQ based fisheries management; 26) Bioeconomic methods for determining TACs; 27) Management strategies: fixed or variable catch quotas; 28) Bioeconomic impacts of TAC adjustment strategies: a model applied to northern cod; 29) Experimental management programs for two rockfish stocks off British Columbia; 30)A brief overview of the experimental approach to reducing uncertainty in fisheries management; 31) Fisheries management organizations: a study of uncertainty.
Description : Risk and reward are always foremost in the determination of investment decisions and business transactions. Advances in the area of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) have enabled the development of new business paradigms. Such paradigms involve transactions taking place between loosely connected parties, often totally or partially unknown to one another. One important concept required to ensure such transactions are successful is transactional risk. The importance of doing this has been demonstrated in recent financial crisis. This book is unique in simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of an event occurring and its financial impact and provides an integrated discussion of the process of transactional risk identification, assessment, evaluation, management and recording in these emerging domains. It provides a detailed and clear exposition of the importance of transactional risk before detailing for its assessment and evaluation. The scope of the book is theoretical and practical and as such it will have a broad market both within academia and industry. Specifically this book should be of primary interest to researchers, graduate students and practitioners in the area of developing business intelligence techniques and their application in various real world applications.